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CO2 emission trends of China's primary aluminum industry: A scenario analysis using system dynamics model
Li, Qiang1; Zhang, Wenjuan1; Li, Huiquan1,2; He, Peng1
2017-06-01
Source PublicationENERGY POLICY
ISSN0301-4215
Volume105Pages:225-235
Abstract

China announced its promise on CO2 emission peak. When and what level of CO2 emission peak China's primary aluminum industry will reach is in suspense. In this paper, a system dynamic model is established, with five subsystems of economy development, primary aluminum production, secondary aluminum production, CO2 emission intensity and policies making involved. The model is applied to examine potential CO2 emission trends of China's primary aluminum industry in next fifteen years with three scenarios of "no new policies", "13th fiveyear plan" and "additional policies". Simulation results imply that: merely relying on rapid expansion of domestic scarps recycling and reuse could not mitigate CO2 emission continuously. Combination of energy saving technology application and electrolytic technology innovation, as well as promoting hydropower utilization in primary aluminum industry are necessary for long term low-carbon development. From a global prospective, enhancing international cooperation on new primary aluminum capacity construction in other countries, especially with rich low-carbon energy, could bring about essential CO2 emission for both China's and global primary aluminum industry.

KeywordPrimary Aluminum Industry Co2 Emission System Dynamics Scenario Analysis
SubtypeArticle
WOS HeadingsScience & Technology ; Technology ; Life Sciences & Biomedicine
DOI10.1016/j.enpol.2017.02.046
Indexed BySCI ; SSCI ; SSCI
Language英语
WOS KeywordGreenhouse-gas Emissions ; Energy-consumption ; Cement Industry ; Policy ; Mitigation
WOS Research AreaEnergy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS SubjectEnergy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
Funding OrganizationNational key research and development program(2016YFF0201601)
WOS IDWOS:000400532900022
Citation statistics
Cited Times:7[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.ipe.ac.cn/handle/122111/22538
Collection湿法冶金清洁生产技术国家工程实验室
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Proc Engn Natl Engn, Lab Hydromet Cleaner Prod Technol, Key Lab Green Proc & Engn, 1 2nd North St, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Chem & Chem Engn, Beijing 100149, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Li, Qiang,Zhang, Wenjuan,Li, Huiquan,et al. CO2 emission trends of China's primary aluminum industry: A scenario analysis using system dynamics model[J]. ENERGY POLICY,2017,105:225-235.
APA Li, Qiang,Zhang, Wenjuan,Li, Huiquan,&He, Peng.(2017).CO2 emission trends of China's primary aluminum industry: A scenario analysis using system dynamics model.ENERGY POLICY,105,225-235.
MLA Li, Qiang,et al."CO2 emission trends of China's primary aluminum industry: A scenario analysis using system dynamics model".ENERGY POLICY 105(2017):225-235.
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